October 2024 has been a heady month. Between two major hurricanes striking the southeast and the looming contentious US presidential election, it would be safe to assume consumers are less likely to be focused on deal seeking this fall. Amazon’s October Prime Big Deal Days began during the COVID-19 pandemic as a response to earlier holiday shopping, as many realized they needed to buy gifts sooner to ensure timely delivery due to supply chain disruptions. Four years later, October sales events have become the norm, as retailers aim to boost their holiday season sales early. This year, however, could play out differently.
According to a press release from Amazon, this October’s sales event was the company’s biggest ever in its three year history (hurricanes and elections be damned!). Yet despite the retailer’s original intentions to get a jump on the holiday shopping season, only a quarter of consumers reported making any holiday gift purchases during the event. Perhaps more closely mirroring the events of the outside world, U.S. online retailer spending decreased 5% year-over-year for this time period, according to Salesforce.
As a necessary reaction to Amazon cutting the proverbial line for holiday sales, other retailers have also rolled out their own sales events. Attain data from 2023 shows identical transaction spikes during 2023 Prime Big Deals across Target, Walmart, Best Buy, and Kohl’s - all who have all spun up sales to compete with Amazon.
This could prove that Amazon’s rising tide could lift all boats, at least when it comes to shifting revenue into October. The coverage and press Amazon sales events receive might be reminding customers to price compare with other major retailers, who are now likely to be having their own sales events to align with Amazon. Attain shoppers show a preference for Walmart, who’s combination of everyday grocery items, brick and mortar convenience, and wide selection of products drive a higher share of transactions compared to Amazon. Walmart and Target also beat out Amazon on average basket size.
This year, retailers attempting to pull consumer spend forward in Q4 might be more necessary than ever. The election is days away, and it could take weeks before the result is settled. Consumers typically spend less leading up to the election, and start spending again once the results are in. This, combined with a short period between Thanksgiving and Christmas, gives consumers much less time to shop. “No matter who wins, there are going to be many, many people who are very upset. People could be quite literally marching in the streets, and I don't think they're going to be also marching into Macy's or Best Buy and buying stuff for the holidays,” eMarketer senior analyst Zak Stambor said in a recent interview with Jeremy Bloom. “I think this is something that every retailer needs to be thinking about how November is going to shake out and how that impacts the holiday season.”
Do these October sales have lasting power, and will they lead consumers to spend more in the long run? “I haven’t seen much evidence to suggest it’s driving much incremental shopping,” Andrew Lipsman, an independent retail and marketing analyst at his firm Media, Ads + Commerce, told The Outcome in September. What’s more likely is that consumers buy goods for themselves in October that they would normally buy on black Friday or Cyber Monday, along with their holiday gifts. If anything, this gives retailers an earlier read on Q4 performance, but not more in terms of overall revenue. Initial analysis of 2024 Attain data show a potential year-over-year decrease in overall transactions across big retailers, indicating that inflation weariness has reached an all-time high.
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