The future of measurement has the potential to be quite utopian, at least according to Esther Maguire, Head of Product Marketing and Strategy at LG Ad Solutions, and Paul Gelb, Founder of media consultancy HAUS Effect. They joined Attain’s SVP of Strategy Dan Kurtter on the panel titled “Reimagining Incrementality: How to Modernize Measurement for a Real-Time Ecosystem” at Programmatic I/O in New York last week.
Gelb believes that in order to modernize measurement, we need to take a step back to first completely reinvent privacy and identification. “The biggest thing to come out of these antitrust hearings is just how detrimental to everybody except the walled garden and tech giants the privacy and ID conversation has been. Coming out of that, the IDs and standards for ID sharing and opening that up to competition and new companies is going to be required.”
In terms of what modernizing measurement actually means, Gelb believes it consists of three things. The first is actually using the right outcomes-based metrics like incrementality, coupled with the improved modeling techniques made possible through improvements in machine learning and AI. The models will allow for faster predictions, which in turn will provide marketers with the data earlier to take action. Lastly, CMOs will increasingly be held accountable for their measurement strategies and proof of real business outcomes.
Esther Maguire, of LG Ad Solutions, believes that it’s about balancing speed with accuracy, and one shouldn’t be compromised for at the expense of the other. She also believes first-party data panels are significantly advancing measurement because they provide an important source of truth from start to finish. Lastly, a holistic identification system to prevent identity churn will be crucial. “The more devices, the more channels, more identifiers that you're putting in, it's going to cause identity churn, and that's something that we really need to focus and modernize.”
When asked how signal loss and new legislation has affected measurement, Gelb reinforced his point that Google’s antitrust hearings should result in a new system of identification, as it’s the only way to create fair competition. He also believes that state-level legislation on digital privacy is not feasible, given there would need to be 50 different privacy policies, and that it will eventually make its way to the federal level.
Gelb also referenced the proven effectiveness of optimizing messaging frequency and cadence, a core principle of advertising that shouldn’t be undersold. As Maguire also mentioned, reliable signals that make cross-device measurement and frequency tracking possible is crucial to the foundation of advertising effectiveness.
“Cookies will never die,” Maguire said, meaning there will always be a need to identify people online. Dan Kurtter of Attain agreed, but also pointed out that the increased ability for consumers to opt-out of tracking will inevitably lead to less coverage than traditional cookies once provided. Gelb added that we’re underestimating people’s willingness to opt-in and how expectations of digital privacy and tracking have shifted. He references examples such as the difficulty and annoyances of opting out, as seen in Europe due to GDPR, and the prevalence of the belief (and apparent acceptance) that Instagram is “listening” to conversations.
As for the future, both panelists are optimistic about the opportunity for innovation and reinvention of the industry. Maguire says that data providers like Attain with panel data that goes beyond transaction scraping offers a glimpse into the future. Gelb believes that this time of turmoil will lead us into an era of unprecedented leaps and bounds of growth in the industry. He even predicts that top talent from walled gardens will be looking elsewhere to innovate. “They’re not going to wait for that VP promotion. They're going to go to a startup. We're going to see talent, money and speed all come together.”
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