Inflation remains stubborn, but the heart wants what it wants. And this Valentine’s Day, instead of prix fixe reservations at a hot boîte, couples might be open to quick-service restaurants’ appeals to let them come over.
To deliver food, that is.
Data from Attain should give QSRs the hint: they’ve been navigating the competitive Valentine's Day dining market with mixed results. Most chains saw only modest changes in customer spending patterns between Valentine's Day 2023 and 2024, Attain data shows, suggesting that holiday promotions may have limited impact on overall revenue.
The nostalgia-swathed casual dining chain A&W emerged as the standout performer during that period with a 3% increase in average transaction amounts from $14.76 to $17.81, according to Attain.
That modest gain was the highest growth among major QSR chains.
But its ability to send patrons’ hearts fluttering stands in contrast to broader industry trends. Qdoba and Dunkin' Donuts each managed 1% gains, Attain found, while Starbucks saw a bare 0.4% uptick in average transactions. Meanwhile, some prominent chains faced rejection, with Panera Bread experiencing a 1.5% drop and Jack in the Box declining by 0.8%.
Focusing on at-home celebrations has become a more reasonable opportunity for QSRs, the last few years. DoorDash, the delivery app, and others have begun promoting their restaurant partners’ Valentine specials since mid-January.
“People are more open to alternative ways of celebrating Valentine’s Day,” says Allen Adamson, co-founder and managing partner of brand consultancy Metaforce. “You don't have to order from an expensive restaurant. You could do a whole 'why spend so much on a Valentine meal, stay in tonight, order from us and watch a movie and go out another night when they're not overpriced and overcrowded.“
Offering a “Netflix and chill” deal would be one avenue to win over shy Valentine’s, Adamson says.
However, the delivery strategy faces its own challenges. Last Valentine's Day saw widespread strikes by ride-share and delivery app workers across major U.S. cities, highlighting the complex dynamics of the modern food service ecosystem.
Despite these challenges, delivery remains a crucial component of QSRs' Valentine's strategy, with many offering special packaging and plating instructions to elevate the at-home dining experience.
Brandon Gilles, chef and co-owner of Fiorella in San Francisco, shared his advice with DoorDash about the importance of authenticity in Valentine's promotions: "My Valentine's Day advice for restaurants? Focus on doing what you do really, really well. Stay true to your DNA and allow people to have a great meal at a great price point."
The narrow range of transaction value changes that Attain reported — spanning from -1.5% to +3% – indicates that while Valentine's promotions may actually drive some foot traffic, they don't substantially alter consumer spending habits. That dynamic has led many chains to focus less on driving higher tickets and more on creating memorable experiences that build long-term brand loyalty.
White Castle has perhaps written the playbook for this approach. Once again, the slider-focused burger chain is transforming their restaurants into "Love Castles" complete with hostess seating, tableside service, and festive décor — a tradition they've maintained since 1991.
“Everyone can enjoy love at White Castle, where we always offer hot and tasty craveable food, great value and memorable moments — without the inflated price tag," says Jamie Richardson, vice president at White Castle, in a statement. Their Valentine's Day dinner service, running from 4 to 9 p.m., has become so popular that reservations are now required at over 300 participating locations.
Other chains are finding success by focusing on specific dayparts or alternative celebrations.
Krispy Kreme's Hearts in Bloom Collection features heart-shaped donuts in a customized flower bouquet box. Meanwhile, Dunkin' and Starbucks have seen success with special Valentine's coffee mixers and buy-one-get-one promotions for morning dates.
“QSRs can play in this arena on Valentine’s Day, but they have to approach it creatively and with a sense of where they might fit,” says Adamson. “Using traditional Valentine's communication like 'take your sweetheart for a special meal' at McDonald's probably won't resonate. But if they approach it with humor and different targets, it can work.”
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