The grocery retail landscape is undergoing an intriguing transformation, and a recent article published by Grocery Dive highlights the potential opportunities of Aldi acquiring the Winn-Dixie and Harvey’s supermarket chains from Southeastern Grocers. In this post, we’ll outline the striking similarities in spending habits among the three major players and analyze how the alignment in their shopping patterns presents a unique opportunity for strategic consolidation.

According to Attain’s consumer-permissioned commerce data, all three retailers—Aldi, Winn-Dixie, and Harvey’s—have witnessed an average transaction amount hovering around the $40 range over the past year. Aldi and Winn-Dixie share the same average transaction value of $42, while Harvey’s stands close at $41. This similarity provides a solid foundation for a smooth transition, especially if Aldi decides to rebrand Winn-Dixie and Harvey’s under its umbrella.

Notably, all three grocers have experienced an increase in the average transaction amount year over year, a trend that aligns with the rising cost of goods. Specifically, Aldi’s average transaction amount has seen a 3.9% YoY increase. This upward trajectory corresponds with Aldi’s growth spree in recent years. As consumers seek discounts in the face of inflation, Aldi’s focus on cost-effective offerings has resonated with a wider audience. The acquisition of Winn-Dixie and Harvey’s could amplify this growth trajectory by capturing more customers looking for affordable options amid economic uncertainties.

A demographic analysis of the three retailers’ customer bases reveals Aldi can broaden its customer base across generations, tapping into older shoppers who typically choose Winn-Dixie and Harvey’s. Aldi shoppers are primarily composed of Millennials, indicating a 1.1x likelihood of this generation choosing Aldi as their preferred grocery store. On the other hand, Winn-Dixie and Harvey’s attract older shoppers, predominantly from the Gen X and Boomer generations. Both Winn-Dixie and Harvey’s shoppers are 1.2x more likely to be Gen X.

Interestingly, when evaluating household income, the three retailers exhibit similarities in their annual earnings. Aldi, Winn-Dixie, and Harvey’s shoppers are all more likely to fall within the mid-income range of $50,000 to $100,000 annually, with Harvey’s shoppers also being 1.1x more likely to have an HHI of $50,000 or less. This data underscores a prime opportunity to consolidate discount-focused shoppers into Aldi’s portfolio, aligning well with its emphasis on affordability.

One fascinating finding in the data is the cross-purchasing behavior among shoppers. The most significant overlap occurs between Aldi and Winn-Dixie, with 10% of shoppers purchasing from both retailers, whereas only 1% shop at Aldi and Harvey’s. Remarkably, a substantial 70% of Aldi shoppers remain loyal exclusively to the discount grocer. This acquisition could potentially open doors for Harvey’s and Winn-Dixie, bringing their customers into the fold of Aldi’s offerings. The strategic move also affects Publix, a key grocery competitor, as there is a 33% overlap between Publix and Winn-Dixie shoppers, with only 7% shopping exclusively at Winn-Dixie. Following the acquisition, Aldi can position itself as an appealing alternative to traditional grocery options and entice shoppers who are not grounded in loyalty. It also promises to enhance Harvey’s shopper base, as only 2% exclusively shop at the retailer, indicating the potential for Aldi to transform these shoppers into a loyal customer segment.

Grocery retailers are evolving in response to economic changes, and the alignment in spending habits across Aldi, Winn-Dixie, and Harvey’s points toward a strategic opportunity. As consumers continue to seek discounts amid rising costs, the prevalence of discount-focused grocers like Aldi becomes increasingly relevant. This acquisition not only expands Aldi’s reach but also provides a chance to cater to a broader customer base while maintaining its core value proposition of affordability–it may also further solidify its position as a discount grocery leader, providing value to both loyal and newly acquired shoppers.